bItCoiN iS a SaFe hAvEn

I’m not mad at Mark Yusko because I’ve been in the financial media game for 9 years and I already know most of what he’s doing is for attention. It’s a relatively harmless shtick, I don’t feel like people really take all the crypto tweets literally. He’s also a good guy in real life, which is how I try (I really do) to judge people, if I am judging them at all (who am I to judge?).

But this is Type 2 Charlatanry* and Yusko knows it. He’s can’t seriously be suggesting that Bitcoin is an actual “safe haven” in real life. I’m sure he means metaphorically speaking it is an asset outside the control of governments and banks (yeah, not really, they’re still regulating and taxing the people and companies that deal in Bitcoin).

But it is definitively, incontrovertibly, conclusively NOT a safe haven statistically. I don’t give a shit what its price happened to have done this week.

Here’s what you need to know, (shout to Ben Carlson for the assist here):

Both tables basically tell the same story — bitcoin vol is ~4-6x higher than stocks and gold and 55-75x higher than ST treasuries.

Exhibit One:

Exhibit Two:

You can’t call something that has 75x the volatility of cash equivalents a safe haven and then not be called out for it.

I don’t have an issue with Bitcoin, I own some. I do have an issue with convincing people it’s a safe haven asset. Get the f*** out of here.


* a Type 1 charlatan doesn’t know that they’re full of shit and genuinely believes in what they’re saying. There’s lots of overlap here with people who have Messianic Complex and other mental diseases. In contradistinction, a Type 2 charlatan is just someone who says outrageous things for attention and picks fights with other investors to generate interest in themselves or their services. Begging Warren Buffett to bet you and having the highest price target for something and throwing punches at people who disagree and constantly screaming about crashes and booms and busts – all signs of a Type 2. 

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