How the shutdown ends

The economics team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have a note out saying that it’s easier to predict how the government shutdown will end than to predict when it will end.

To date, the shutdown is the second longest on record and will be the longest if it remains shuttered through January 12th which seems quite likely.

The most likely outcome will be to return to the bipartisan deal that was struck by Congressional leaders before the new year which included some money for border security in return for funding the rest of the government through the fiscal year. When that deal comes about will depend on how much pain the Trump administration is willing to tolerate. There are various pain points that will be felt shortly in coming days and weeks: government workers affected by the shutdown will miss their first paycheck this week, tax refunds may see delays or not go out at all. All could lead to a compromise.

Ethan Harris et al note that the rule of thumb for shutdowns is something like a 0.1 or 0.2 percentage point drag on economic growth each week, so estimates for GDP are not materially coming down quite yet.


Government shutdown: 20 days and counting…
Bank of America Merrill Lynch – January 10th, 2019

This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here:

Please see disclosures here.

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. Hitachi VM-E310A manuals commented on Jan 23

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More Info here on that Topic: […]

  2. cc shop commented on Jan 26

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More on that Topic: […]

  3. rolex replica commented on Jan 28

    … [Trackback]

    […] There you can find 29150 additional Information to that Topic: […]