Instead of continuing to torture the data—and ourselves—in effort to find meaning in the noise, we should instead focus on building portfolios that are robust to many potential outcomes rather than being perfect for a single one.
It is an approach where we openly admit, “I don’t know.” This admission of uncertainty allows us to focus on being vaguely right instead of risking being precisely wrong.
- Corey Hoffstein, Newfound Research
Yes of course this is right. Corey nails it. Sure, we may think we can see an outcome about to happen. But that’s an impossible game to play consistently and still succeed. Better to plan for the real world, where many different things can occur. You need to have good enough answers for variety, not come up with the perfect answer for one specific result. This takes time to learn, lots of mistakes and plenty of humility.
It also takes honesty in how you market your service / strategy / advice.
Make sure you hit the ump above and read his whole post. It’s really good.