Jon Krinsky, MKM Partners’ ace technician, had a great chart and observation out this weekend. If you’re looking to say that 2016 was the end of the secular bull market for bonds (and the secular bear market for yields), you’ve got a pretty compelling piece of information on your side now (emphasis mine):
Earlier this year, 10 year yields traded below the low of last year (1.64%), and are currently above last year’s high (2.50%). Should they close above 2.50%, it would represent a bullish outside year for yields. Since yields peaked in 1981, that has never happened. That would add to the thesis that we have seen an end to the secular bull market in bonds.
The Pause That Refreshes
MKM Partners – December 18th 2016