Two Great Ones from Mike and Ben

It’s been a crazy-hectic week for me, but mostly good stuff happening. Preparations for the Evidence Based Investing Conference are underway and we’re on the verge of announcing some major new speakers. I can’t wait to tell you about them.

In the meantime, the firm just blew through a major milestone in the last week. I’ll have more to say on this during our third anniversary next month. Suffice it to say, we’ve grown faster than I ever imagined we would, and it’s forced me to get more efficient with my time and to re-learn what I thought I already new about priorities. I’m trying to find balance, probably just like you are. I don’t think there is a finish line in this particular search.

Anyway, two great reads below from my colleagues today that I don’t think anyone should miss. I’m privileged to work with Michael and Ben and I love that I get to offer their expertise to our clients day in and day out. It’s pretty sick to have both of them on one investment committee.

Michael Batnick looks at the history of 20% moves for the S&P 500 in terms of 12-month rolling periods. He shares some thoughts about the probabilities of these moves being up versus down – and about how absurd it is that people think the moves can be foretold in advance:

Will the next $2,618,907,150,799 be added to or removed from the U.S. stock market? Nobody would answer such a ridiculous question, and yet, there are so many who wouldn’t think twice to opine on whether the next twenty percent ($2.6 trillion) move for U.S. stocks is up or down.

Read it here:

The Next Twenty Percent (The Irrelevant Investor)

Here’s Ben Carlson on the risk that many investors don’t consider:

don’t get me wrong, preparing yourself mentally for market downturns can be a helpful exercise. These things are inevitable so planning for a wide range of outcomes that includes the potential for large losses in risk assets is a decent way to ensure that you don’t panic when markets do fall.

But there’s another risk in the markets that most investors don’t spend too much time worrying about — a melt-up in prices.

Read it here:

How to Survive a Melt-Up (A Wealth Of Common Sense)

Have a great weekend and thanks for reading this week!

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