Nobody knows what to do right now. Peter Boockvar notes that “I don’t know” sentiment just hit a 26-year high in the latest polls…
Following the II data seen yesterday which saw about a 5 pt drop in Bulls which was a good contrarian set up for the rally this week, the AAII individual read today says the same thing. Bulls fell to 17.8, the lowest since 2005 (and thus below where it was in March ’09) from 19.3 last week. Bears though also fell to 29.4 from 34.1 as it was the Neutral side that saw the jump. It rose to 52.9 from 46.6. That is the most extreme print of people basically saying “I don’t know” since 1990. Yes, a 26 yr high. The Bear side though remains well below its 2016 peak of 48.7 in 2016 and it got to 70 in March ’09. Bottom line, the level of bulls shrunk again but rather than seeing a buildup in Bears, more are in the clueless camp or as seen in II, only expecting a correction rather than a bear market. That is just a contrarian setup for a short term bounce, nothing more for now.
I don’t know either. Better to reserve opinions for afterward, and then act like I did 😉
If you’re feeling confused about why we’re pushing toward all-time highs with two accomplished liars running for office, declining earnings and a feisty Fed, you’re not alone. Just remember it’s all ETF flows and robots anyway, no one is really making conscious decisions anymore.
It’ll be fine.
Managing Director, Chief Market Analyst
The Lindsey Group LLC