Did Greece just kill itself or save itself?

All told, I think Greece did a nice job scheduling its existential crisis with China’s stock market collapse. It’s like macro sweeps week.

— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) July 5, 2015

I guess we’ll find out in a few years what today’s “No” vote will actually mean. Anyone forming a strong opinion now about whether or not the Greeks did the right thing may be a bit premature.

Canceling hundreds of billions in obligations will crush their economy short-term but possibly set up a revival with a new “cheaper” drachma and a wiping clean of the disastrous slate.

Or the whole country descends into utter chaos never to recover.

In the case of the Latin American defaults and devaluations of the aught’s decade, it was rocky for a bit but it didn’t exactly lead to civil war or permanent depression. That being said, the Greeks are accustomed to a higher standard of living and more robust systems of governance and social support – so it’s not a great comparison.

Krugman is calling this a “win” for both Europe and Greece. His position going into this was that the only way for Greece to vote was “no” – basically Europe told them to. Stiglitz was also for a “no” vote. There’ll be lots more commentary on both sides of the issue re: “what Greece should do” and no one will be able to claim victory quite so soon.

Stock market futures around the world are selling off deeply as headlines come in fast and furious about emergency Eurogroup conclaves and ECB contingency plans. It’s not even close to being over.

If you made a big bet on either outcome, may the odds be ever in your favor.

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