You can be right for the wrong reasons but still be compensated for it. The markets don’t discriminate. A PhD dissertation isn’t required for every trade or investment. Every day people make investment choices for the wrong reasons and still make money. Many fund managers have made their careers in a single good year where they probably got lucky. It’s not fair, but these things have a way of working themselves out eventually.
This is such a killer insight from Ben. I’ve been around long enough to have seen hundreds of examples of this. You can probably think of a bunch too.