This morning, BAML’s equity and quant strategist Savita Subramanian responds to recent chatter about the softening of US economic data.
In her view, the economic / stock market up-cycle is still intact – credit conditions are still easing, the Fed is not yet unwinding its balance sheet, real GDP has not fully expanded beyond its prior cycle peak, etc. Stock market valuation is high on average versus prior peaks, but this is counterbalanced by the ongoing bearishness of Wall Street firms vis a vis their percentage allocation recommendations.
Here’s BAML’s table outlining the current conditions versus those of past cycle peaks, as a reference point:
Is the cycle over?
Bank of America Merrill Lynch – April 21st 2015