10-Year Yield Spikes 33%

Lots of guys and gals went home this weekend thinking about the implications of the recent rise in the 10-year Treasury bond’s yield.

Chris Kimble notes it was the biggest 5-week rate rally in twenty years!

10 year


So are we bumping along the bottom or is a new longer term uptrend in its nascent stages?

My pal Eric Peters quotes “the Roadrunner”, whom he calls the biggest volatility trader in the market, as to where we could feasibly be headed:

“There were massive sellers of 3mth 10 and 20 delta treasury puts on Friday; vol collapsed,” explained Roadrunner. “They’re players who sell futures against their options and never cover.” For the past few years, these players like Pimco only sold calls and bought futures. Bond prices rose every time to their strikes. “Direction-wise, it’s uncanny how good they are.” Maybe they’re so big, it’s self-fulfilling. “And looking at the flows and the strikes this time, 2.75% 10yr yields in 3mths seem within reach.”


Having spoken extensively with financial advisors, fund managers, high net worth investors, asset allocators, mutual fund wholesalers and portfolio managers around the country this winter, I don’t believe the majority of market participants are anywhere near ready for this to be a continuing trend.

Between the alternative fixed income allocations and the “bond-like stock” stuff everyone’s been doing, I think the majority of folks are what you’d call “out of position” right now.

Friday’s turmoil is a sign that people now feel the need to be changing things up. Trends don’t last forever, after all, and playbooks always grow stale in the end.


Interest rates up 33% in 5-weeks, sharpest rally in 20-years (Kimble Charting)

wknd notes (Peters Capital Group)

This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here: https://www.ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers

Please see disclosures here.

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web