There she goes, my beautiful world

The S&P 500 spent almost two full years, between the fall of 2012 and this past September, above its 200-day moving average. For 475 consecutive trading days, stocks remained in a pristine, untouched uptrend – the longest such event in stock market history.

And now it’s over.

The type of behavior you were rewarded for in the period may not be quite as rewarding going forward. It was a once in a lifetime tape and, understandably, people have a hard time accepting that. They still want to believe it’s 2013 – that incredible confluence of improving earnings, ameliorating sentiment and endless stimulus – but it’s not. I said this on the blog the other day and people got angry (see: Why Did The Stock Market Plummet Today?). I said this on the air yesterday and the response was incredulity (see the clip: The Halftime Report).

I get it. Old habits die hard and, well, goddamn that was fun. Every two percent dip was a a gift and every four percent pullback was a screaming buy. Good news was good and bad news was even better. Defensive utilities and growthy tech stocks could lead a rally together one day and then tag in the seemingly opposed energy and consumer discretionary stocks to co-sponsor a rally the next day. It was nirvana, heaven on earth. All you had to do was show up and shut up, your portfolio would grind out a gain every week.

By this summer, it became apparent to anyone looking at internals or international stocks that this period was drawing to a close and the game was changing. The divergences had piled up and the new highs list had been gnawed down to a nub. The S&P 500’s best 50 stocks drove the price indices higher, even while, one by one, every other stock succumbed. We spent the last few weeks on borrowed time but no one wanted to admit it. Even as rallies rolled over and breakouts became fakeouts in the hottest individual names (GoPro! Tesla! Mobileye!), there was a hesitation to acknowledge it. A difficulty saying goodbye.

And who can blame us? Why would you want to believe you couldn’t have Christmas and the Fourth of July every day, forever? It was a tantalizing prospect and it began to feel possible – even plausible!

But now it’s over.

There she goes, my beautiful world. 

It’s a new phase, like it or not. Don’t get me wrong – we’ll still get glimmers of her. Those 90-percent up-days where stocks go ballistic and scream into the close. Those 3:30pm ramps after a tough day slugging it out with the sellers. Those algo-driven bursts that confuse us into thinking everyone else is getting back on the horse and we’d better catch up. It’ll happen.

But it will not be the same as it was. The Relentless Bid era has come to a close. This is the next era, it’s already begun.

No one can see these things coming far in advance. But some of us are willing to call them what they are.

Tell ’em, Nick:

This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here: https://www.ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers

Please see disclosures here.

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. FS19 mods commented on Sep 12

    FS19 mods

    […]one of our guests not too long ago recommended the following website[…]

  2. FS 19 mods commented on Sep 13

    FS 19 mods

    […]very few sites that take place to be in depth beneath, from our point of view are undoubtedly effectively worth checking out[…]

  3. sex audio stories commented on Sep 13

    sex audio stories

    […]Here is a great Blog You might Obtain Interesting that we Encourage You[…]

  4. Stepfamily Porn Online commented on Sep 14

    Stepfamily Porn Online

    […]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine some unrelated information, nonetheless actually worth taking a look, whoa did one master about Mid East has got much more problerms as well […]

  5. Stepfamily Porn Online commented on Sep 14

    Stepfamily Porn Online

    […]we came across a cool site that you just may enjoy. Take a appear for those who want[…]

  6. پروکسی Mtproto commented on Sep 14

    vpn ایفون

    I’m truly making the most of the design and style and format of your weblog. It’s a extremely simple on the eyes which can make it significantly far more pleasant for me to come below and visit more often. Did you retain the services of out a developer…

  7. houses for sale in riverside ca posted on Sep 16

    houses for sale in riverside ca

    […]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine some unrelated information, nevertheless genuinely really worth taking a appear, whoa did one find out about Mid East has got additional problerms at the same time […]

  8. Dolce and Gabbana commented on Sep 16

    Dolce and Gabbana

    […]please pay a visit to the web pages we comply with, such as this one particular, as it represents our picks from the web[…]

  9. xxnxx commented on Sep 17

    xxnxx

    […]always a massive fan of linking to bloggers that I really like but do not get lots of link like from[…]

  10. Givenchy commented on Sep 17

    Givenchy

    […]please visit the sites we stick to, including this one, because it represents our picks from the web[…]

  11. Jimmy Choo commented on Sep 17

    Jimmy Choo

    […]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a couple of unrelated data, nonetheless really worth taking a appear, whoa did one particular understand about Mid East has got far more problerms also […]

  12. خرید وی پی ان commented on Sep 19

    vpn ایفون

    right here are some back links to web webpages that we website link to because we come to feel they are genuinely value browsing

  13. خرید وی پی ان commented on Sep 20

    vpn ایفون

    Hello there! Do you know if they make any plugins to support with Search engine marketing? I’m making an attempt to get my website to rank for some targeted search phrases but I’m not viewing really good gains. If you know of any remember to share. Man…

  14. Coupon website commented on Sep 20

    Coupon website

    […]always a significant fan of linking to bloggers that I adore but don’t get a lot of link love from[…]

  15. خرید وی پی ان پر سرعت commented on Sep 20

    vpn ایفون

    Appreciating the time and effort you set into your blog and in depth information you provide. It’s great to come across a website each and every once in a while that is not the same undesirable rehashed info. Superb read! I’ve saved your site and I’m i…