The Highest Conviction Game

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Let’s play a game.

Imagine you could only have four positions in a portfolio between now and year-end, of equal size (25% each). Obviously this is nuts, call it a gun-to-your-head thing. No one would advocate doing this in real life but it’s a helpful exercise in determining your true highest-conviction investments at any given time.

Just for fun and completely hypothetically, mine would be:

25% Long Japanese stocks / short Japanese yen

25% US Financial Sector Stocks

25% Investment Grade US Corporate Bonds

25% European Stocks

These are asset classes / sectors where I see value and where I can picture the fund flows going to drive their prices higher into the end of the year. Just my guess, of course.

What would your four slots be?

 

 

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