What Happens When You Buy Brazil Down 20%?

My post last night looked at the slow-motion crash in the Brazilian Bovespa index, the “World’s Most Hated Stock Market”.

Kora Reddy, the quant blogger behind the hot new site Paststat, ran the data for us of what happens when you buy Brazilian stocks down 20%, historically speaking, going back to 1995:

here are the prior 23 instances of the Bovespa  loosing more than 20% in prior 6 months ( as of June 2013 end Bovespa lost -22.14% in six months)

and assuming one goes long and holds the Bovespa Index for next six months , the trading odds

      • Winners : 21
      • Losers : 2
      • % Winners : 91%
      • Average Change % : 30.54
      • Median Change % : 27.78
      • Maximum Gain % : 71.39
      • Maximum Loss % : -7.51
      • Average Gain %if Winner : 33.85
      • Average Loss % if Loser : -4.24
      • Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 7.98

That’s a pretty high win rate (91%) and quite an average gain (+30%). Past performance is no guarantee etc etc.

Here’s the table Kora made:

bovespa

Source:

When Bovespa lost more than 20% in past six months (Paststat)

Read Also:

The Case for Brazil, the World’s Most Hated Stock Market (TRB)

Follow Kora Reddy on Twitter @paststat

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. A Brazillion Roundup commented on Oct 14

    […] even need to think twice about it, the answer is Brazil.” Pause. The next day, Josh posted What Happens When You Buy Brazil Down 20%? In this follow on discussion he offered some history, how the Brazilian market fared 6 months […]

  2. Women's Loungewear commented on Sep 12

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More Info here to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/19/what-happens-when-you-buy-brazil-down-20/ […]

  3. Zeitarbeitsfirma Pflege Bargteheide commented on Sep 15

    … [Trackback]

    […] Information to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/19/what-happens-when-you-buy-brazil-down-20/ […]

  4. video transitions premiere pro 2020 commented on Sep 15

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/19/what-happens-when-you-buy-brazil-down-20/ […]

  5. taxi from cheltenham to bristol airport commented on Sep 17

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More Information here on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/19/what-happens-when-you-buy-brazil-down-20/ […]

  6. bitcoin evolution reviews commented on Sep 19

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More on on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/19/what-happens-when-you-buy-brazil-down-20/ […]

  7. blazing trader review 2020 commented on Sep 24

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More Information here on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/19/what-happens-when-you-buy-brazil-down-20/ […]

  8. bitcoin evolution review commented on Sep 28

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More Info here to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/19/what-happens-when-you-buy-brazil-down-20/ […]

  9. Vape juice commented on Oct 09

    … [Trackback]

    […] Info to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/19/what-happens-when-you-buy-brazil-down-20/ […]

  10. heart of the ocean commented on Oct 26

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More on on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/19/what-happens-when-you-buy-brazil-down-20/ […]

  11. S&W Firearms commented on Nov 04

    … [Trackback]

    […] There you will find 78422 additional Info on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/19/what-happens-when-you-buy-brazil-down-20/ […]

  12. bmo online business commented on Dec 07

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More here on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/19/what-happens-when-you-buy-brazil-down-20/ […]

  13. Community News commented on Dec 12

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More Info here on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/19/what-happens-when-you-buy-brazil-down-20/ […]

  14. Digital transformation commented on Jan 16

    … [Trackback]

    […] There you will find 78048 more Info to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/19/what-happens-when-you-buy-brazil-down-20/ […]

  15. Advantech Network media converters manuals commented on Jan 19

    … [Trackback]

    […] There you will find 18962 more Info to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2013/07/19/what-happens-when-you-buy-brazil-down-20/ […]