Too early, too late

“A wizard is never late, nor is he early, he arrives precisely when he means to.”

– Gandalf, Lord of the Rings

Sorry I’ve been incommunicado all day. frankly, there’s not much to talk about at the moment.

Just on the surface, it would appear that it’s too early to buy the dip, nothing’s really gotten beaten up enough. It’s also too late to make any reactionary sales off the Cyprus news – the action is pretty constructive today considering. For example, the energy longs in our portfolio are actually up on the day – not quite indicative of the start of a real panic.

And so if it is both too early and too late, the best course is to watch and wait.

Barry sums up my feelings pretty well here:

I do not have a whole lot to say about the Cyprus story, but I do want to point out some of the already more ridiculous comparisons that have been made.

This is not about punishing savers. It is about a 1 million person island that has become a tax haven for Russian oligarchs.It is not another MF Global. No one is confiscating

I expect to see a run of very serious articles about “Confiscation” and “Moral Hazard” and other such empty headed filler. I plan on ignoring much of the blather…

It’s not that it doesn’t matter, it’s that there is a proportion in which each thing matters based on the big picture (no pun intended) and this is not quite up to the level where it requires massive concern yet.

That said, as they used to tell me during my early 80’s career doing VHS-quality porn, “the situation is fluid.”

Not doing much else here other than blocking and tackling for my practice. TTYL.

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Watching the Cyprus Bombast (TBP)


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