January 2013

New Secular Bull: Yes or No?

Many of us are operating under the assumption that the rally in US stocks from the lows of March 2009 has constituted a CYCLICAL bull market that’s occurred within the context of a larger SECULAR bear market that began in March 2000. This heuristic makes a great deal of sense historically – there have been…

Felix Zulauf Growls

This weekend was the opening salvo of the Barron’s Roundtable and opinions were fairly diverse. Most of the participants did their usual talking-your-book routine: Abby Joseph Cohen is bullish, Bill Gross is vaguely bearish, Mario Gabelli says its a stock-picker’s market etc – no surprises, same thing 20 years running. But the commentary that really…

Academia vs Technical Analysis

There’s a guy I know who runs a long/short fund and all day long he tells me he’s buying and selling stocks. But he disdainfully refers to technical analysis as “magic” and insists it’s irrelevant. I have no idea, then, what he is basing these intraday buys and sells on. Can’t be “valuation” because things…