Market Recon: 1/24/2013

Stephen J. Guilfoyle “Sarge” was previously the U.S. Economist at Meridian Equity Partners from 2007 following a long career at Credit Suisse. Stephen has worked on the trading floor of the NYSE continuously since July 1987 and actively serves as a Sergeant in the National Guard.


Good Morning,

China was roaring earlier in today’s session gang, and it’s no small wonder.  The HSBC Flash PMI for January printed at 51.9 last night, up from a previous number of 51.5, and like I told you, yesterday, this print being disseminated by a private business, and being positive, was taken as a validation of the improving Chinese macro-economic environment in general.  The Shanghai was up in the neighborhood of a 2% gain, and then ended up being down on the day.  So, what happened?  Was it Apple?  Well, yes, and no.  Chinese equities were up after the Apple news, but then North Korea went about threatening to do some nuclear testing.  That put the whammy on most Asian stock prices, with the exception of Japan.  Japanese shares benefited from a yen that finally stopped strengthening.

Since last night, we have been treated to Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs for France, and Germany specifically, and the EMU as a whole.  Those prints were rather mixed, with Germany surprising to the upside, and French numbers just looking awful.  European shares are nearly flat this morning.

Here in our home ballpark, we will get our weekly look at Jobless Claims at 08:30 ET, and we are looking for a print up around the four week moving average, which would make last week’s lower number out to be something of an aberration.  Then, at the most bizarre time of 08:58 ET, Markit will release their U.S. version of a Flash manufacturing PMI.  Consensus here is for a 54 tag, which I think would be especially positive, given the ugliness that we have seen from the Empire State, and the Philly, and Richmond Feds.  Manufacturing data has not been pretty so far in 2013, and as long as we are talking about manufacturing, look for the KC Fed at 11:00 ET.  You will also get Oil Inventories at that same time, a day late, due to the holiday on Monday.  The consensus for the KC Fed has somehow snuck over to the slightly positive side, which would be very pleasant.

Don’t forget that the whole WEF shindig in Davos continues today, and a headline could make or ruin your day for you, so to quote Arthur Cashin of UBS, one must remain  “nimble”.  Kids, the earnings release are again today nearly overwhelming, and you probably had to come in “set-up” already this morning.  For the most part, the pre-opening will again belong to the “old economy”.  That’s when you’ll hear from companies such as MMM, BMY, LMT, MKC, RTN, SWK, and UNP.  Though you will hear from T after the close, that’s when you’ll see numbers from “newer economy” companies such as MSFT, JNPR, and ETFC, and for the guys on the NYSE trading floor…..SBUX, it may not list there, but I know you drink a whole lot of it.

This post originally appeared at  Guilfoyle’s Market Recon.  

Follow the Sarge on Twitter here: @Sarge986

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