Market Recon: 10/15/2012

Stephen J. Guilfoyle “Sarge”, is the U.S. Economist at Meridian Equity Partners since 2007. Stephen joined Meridian after a long career at Credit Suisse. Stephen has worked on the trading floor of the NYSE continuously since July 1987 and actively serves as a Sergeant in the National Guard.


Good Morning,
There were more than a couple of interesting speeches made in Tokyo over the weekend at the big IMF pow-wow.  You had Fed Res. Chairman Ben Bernanke tell the audience that “It is not at all clear that accommodative policies in advanced economies impose net costs on emerging market economies.”  Mr. Bernanke cited studies, to including studies done by the IMF, that support his position.  IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde told the very same audience that such accommodative policies can risk “overheating, asset-price bubbles and the build-up of financial imbalances”. (in emerging economies) Who do you want to believe?  With two “great” economic minds in disagreement. I guess you go with whoever suits your agenda.
Hey, did you catch that Chinese September CPI number last night?  Consumer level inflation has apparently cooled to manageable levels in China.  Now, once the transition of power is out of the way, the PBOC can get aggressive, right?  Ahhh, not so fast.  PBOC Deputy Gov. Yi Gong, also speaking fro the IMF meetings in Tokyo stated that the PBOC will provide appropriate stimulus, but that the bank’s main objective is price stability.  Mr Yi then warned that bubble risks remain in housing in China’s major cities.  Womp womp.
This week, at least economically speaking, is chock full of important data.  Today, we’ll dive right in.  September Retail Sales are due at 08:30 ET.  Today’s expectations are for +0.7%, with a range of +0.4% to +1.5%, or +0.5% if you leave out autos and gas, because who needs a set of wheels?, or a little gas in the tank?  The headline print is coming off of growth of +0.9% for August.  At that same time, we’ll start looking at the manufacturing sector again, with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for October.  Consensus is that the deterioration recently see in this district will slow to -3, from September’s -10.41.  Our October range is -6.5 to -1.  Our last macro-point of the day comes at 10am ET, with August Business Inventories.  Look for an increase of 0.5% here today, within a range of 0.2% to 0.6%.  The July print came in at 0.8%.  For those of you trading the Pacific Rim tonight, the Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of their policy meeting of 2 OCT.
Earnings season continues this week, but today is light in quantity, although possibly heavy in impact.  Before the open, look for C (.96), and GCI (.53).  After the close, you’ll hear from PKG (.56), and WDFC (.70).  Did you say you wanted a bunch of key speakers today?  Yes??? Good, because there are quite a few of them to alert you too.  In order to be brief, I will list today’s speakers:

08:45 ET  New York Fed Pres. William Dudley from NYC.

12:45 ET  Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker from Roanoke, Virginia.  Ques.& Ans.

13:10 ET  St. Louis Fed Pres. James Bullard from St. Louis.

15:20 ET  Bank of Canada Gov. Mark Carney from Vancouver.

20:30 ET  San Francisco Fed Pres. John Williams form San Francisco.  Ques.&Ans.


This post originally appeared at  Guilfoyle’s Market Recon.  

Follow the Sarge on Twitter here: @Sarge986

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