Below I’m showing you the S&P 500 Total Return Index (includes dividends) which is at a new all-time high, above the previous highs of late 2007 just before the financial crisis got underway:
Here’s BAML’s Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy, reminding us of how far we’ve come while rolling out a the firm’s 2013 target:
Initiating a 2013 year-end S&P 500 target of 1600
Our 2013 year-end target of 1600 implies a 10% price return, where most of the appreciation can be attributed to earnings growth of 7% next year, along with modest multiple expansion from 14.2x to 14.7x on trailing earnings, still below an average PE of 16x. This would represent a new all-time high for the S&P 500, surpassing the 1565 level reached in October 2007. But the S&P 500 total return and equal weighted indices have already broken through their 2007 highs, as have the sector indices for Discretionary, Staples, Health Care and Tech (and the NASDAQ). Meanwhile, S&P 500 EPS hit new highs in 2011.
Indeed, when you look at healthcare you see all-time highs. When you look at the tech sector, you see 11-year highs. Many of these sectors have left 2008 in the dust already but most people still haven’t come to terms with that yet.
At a certain point, it’s okay to stop licking one’s wounds and reliving the horrors of the past – while retaining the lessons learned and the wisdom hard-earned through experience.
I’m a New York City-based financial advisor at Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. I help people invest and manage portfolios for them. For disclosure information please see here.
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