Is there jobs growth happening in America right now?
Yes. It’s undeniable. We can look at each monthly report and pick it apart, of course. We can say it’s too slow or too seasonal or too white or not enough small business hiring or whatever. But the noise is pointless. The trend is the thing. As Floyd Norris points out, the trend is higher…
Over the last three months, the job survey has averaged gains of 143,000 per month, while the household survey has gained 318,000 per month. Moreover, the job survey has been regularly revised upward. August went from zero — a number that seemed terrifying at the time — to a decent 104,000. The September gain was 103,000 when it was first reported; now the figure is 210,000. October was 80,000 when first reported; now it is 100,000 with one more revision to come.
These are signs of a generally strengthening labor market.
Can it continue and build. I think so, but the pace will frustrate anyone looking for a miracle.