Leaving the Party Early

In my younger days I was usually one of the last people to leave the party – any party.  Because my parents liked to go out on Saturday nights, many of the parties took place at Chez Downtown.

In my early twenties, living in New York City on a six figure income, the parties got wilder and stretched out into whole weekends.  A schmuck like me could start off at an Upper East Side Irish pub for happy hour, continue on to dinner, then a few clubs and the next thing I know, I’m in Atlantic City at 3 o’clock in the morning on Sunday.  At 23, you could still do that stuff and be at your desk 8 am Monday morning almost fully recovered.  Now I’d probably be dead.

When I got married, I started saying NO to my unmarried friends so that I could stay married a while longer.  But on the few nights out with the boys when, well, “time got away from me,” I managed to learn a very important lesson:  Nothing good ever happens after 2 am.

My wife eventually drilled this into my head, with hundreds of voice mails, texts, and handwritten notes on my pillow.  It took me awhile to come around but, eventually, I got it.

The hot girls don’t miraculously show up after 2 am, neither does the Swedish House Mafia with their turntables,  and no one ever “hits their stride” at the blackjack table all of a sudden either.

On the flip side, being home and in bed at 2am gives you the whole next day to do non-Vampiric things, like live life and bask in the sunshine.  You can get things done at home or get out early for a run.  But the longer you stay at the party the night before, the less likely it is that you’ll accomplish any of that.

Which brings me to my point (I promise, there is one)…

Lowering exposure to the market this week feels a bit like having left the party early.  I can still hear people laughing inside the apartment, the muffled bass from the stereo is echoing off the hallway walls on my way to the elevator.  But the thing is, I have stuff I want to accomplish with my capital…in the morning, later this summer, later this fall.

Will the aging cyclical bull market climb yet another Wall of Worry even as economic data worsens and internals weaken?  Will Mila Kunis and Michelle Rodriguez kick the door down at the party and demand a couch they can make out on?  I suppose these things are possible.  But a lot of things are possible, I can only go by what the data says is more probable.  (Barry laid out the case for lightening up at The Big Picture this morning.)

Should the bull market persist and take out new year highs, I’ll be along for the ride even if underinvested.  But that would be merely a bittersweet outcome still affording me other options – there are much more painful outcomes available as anyone who’s stuck around at a few parties too long will tell you.

Read Also:

“How was your day, Honey?” (TRB)

There’s Something Happening Here (TBP)

 

This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here: https://www.ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers

Please see disclosures here.

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. CTA چیست commented on Jul 13

    تبلیغ در گوگل ادوردز

    I’m really enjoying the style and layout of your weblog. It’s a quite easy on the eyes which tends to make it considerably much more pleasant for me to arrive below and pay a visit to much more often. Did you employ out a developer to create your conce…

  2. hunting gifts commented on Jul 13

    hunting gifts

    […]here are some hyperlinks to websites that we link to since we think they may be really worth visiting[…]

  3. buy hulu card online commented on Jul 13

    buy hulu card online

    […]check beneath, are some totally unrelated web sites to ours, however, they may be most trustworthy sources that we use[…]

  4. denver limo commented on Jul 14

    denver limo

    […]below you’ll obtain the link to some web sites that we consider you’ll want to visit[…]

  5. Amazon Coach commented on Jul 14

    Amazon Coach

    […]usually posts some quite exciting stuff like this. If you are new to this site[…]

  6. تبلیغات در گوگل Adwords commented on Jul 15

    تبلیغ در گوگل ادوردز

    With respect to ergonomics and the advanced technilogy Heuer replica watches have been the great samples of sports watches.

  7. FS 19 mods commented on Jul 16

    FS 19 mods

    […]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a few unrelated data, nevertheless definitely really worth taking a look, whoa did 1 understand about Mid East has got more problerms as well […]

  8. تبلیغات در گوگل commented on Jul 17

    تبلیغ در گوگل ادوردز

    Write a lot more, thats all I have to say. Virtually, it would seem as even though you relied on the movie to make your point. You naturally know what youre speaking about, why squander your intelligence on just posting videos to your internet site whe…

  9. drywall repair commented on Jul 17

    drywall repair

    […]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine several unrelated data, nevertheless actually really worth taking a look, whoa did one discover about Mid East has got extra problerms also […]

  10. smm panel commented on Jul 18

    smm panel

    […]the time to read or stop by the content material or websites we have linked to below the[…]

  11. Box games commented on Jul 18

    Box games

    […]check below, are some totally unrelated websites to ours, having said that, they may be most trustworthy sources that we use[…]

  12. adam and eve clit boppin' bunny 822a commented on Jul 18

    adam and eve clit boppin’ bunny 822a

    […]check below, are some absolutely unrelated sites to ours, on the other hand, they are most trustworthy sources that we use[…]

  13. carbonate jelly dildo commented on Jul 18

    carbonate jelly dildo

    […]very few websites that come about to become detailed below, from our point of view are undoubtedly nicely worth checking out[…]

  14. music news commented on Jul 19

    music news

    […]Every after inside a even though we decide on blogs that we read. Listed beneath are the most current websites that we select […]