Will Glencore be the Blackstone IPO of the Commodity Rally?

Blackstone‘s 2007 IPO didn’t create the top for the private equity / leveraged buyout orgy but it’s coming marked the top almost perfectly.

The deal was obsessed about on financial television for months, every detail of who was making how much got its own segment.  And then BX opened with a resounding thud.  The stock opened over the summer at 36, dropping to 20 by the end the year.  “Sold to you” said Darth Schwartzman from beneath his black-shrouded hood.  A year later $BX was trading at less than 5 bucks a share.

I bring this up because I am increasingly growing bored of the all-commodity, all-the-time, one-way bull market everyone’s obsessed with.  I’m thinking that, as sexy as the commodity story is long-term owing to demographics and globalization, at some point soon everyone’s going to get their asses kicked.  Maybe it’s the specter of higher rates from the June end of QE2, maybe it’s something even more unexpected, but a correction is likely in the cards this spring.

And nothing would mark this coming commodities correction quite like a massive commodities trading shop going public in a high profile IPO.  Well guess what…

From 24/7 Wall Street:

Swiss-based commodities trading house Glencore International AG is expected to conduct an IPO on the Hong Kong exchange around the end of April. The company aims to raise $10 billion with this offering and one in London. The IPO has been rumored for some time, but difficulty in valuing the company’s assets have drawn out the process.

A ten billion dollar IPO in Hong Kong and London for a $145 billion commodities trading firm.  I’ll check that off the list of signs that a “hards and softs” sell-off is overdue.

Next?

Sources:

Glencore Watch (24/7 Wall Street)

Glencore Said to Study Starting IPO Next Week; Investments Jump (BusinessWeek)

 

 

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. Will Glencore I.P.O. Mark the Peak for Commodities? - NYTimes.com commented on Apr 04

    […] // The Reformed Broker blog compares the potential public offering of Glencore, the large commodities trader, with the debut of Blackstone back in 2007 — which “marked the top” of the private equity boom “almost perfectly.” Read more » […]

  2. Blue Coaster33 commented on Apr 27

    Woman of Alien

    Excellent perform you’ve done, this page is really awesome with excellent facts. Time is God’s strategy for preserving every thing from occurring simultaneously.

  3. tv online, online tv commented on Apr 28

    Healing’s Dragon

    to find difficulties to further improve my web-site!I suppose its ok to produce utilization of a handful of of the ideas!!

  4. gay love dolls commented on Sep 25

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/04/04/will-glencore-be-the-blackstone-ipo-of-the-commodity-rally/ […]

  5. blenhartpaintinganddecorating.com commented on Oct 19

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More on to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/04/04/will-glencore-be-the-blackstone-ipo-of-the-commodity-rally/ […]

  6. axiolabs steroids 2020 commented on Oct 22

    … [Trackback]

    […] Info to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/04/04/will-glencore-be-the-blackstone-ipo-of-the-commodity-rally/ […]

  7. Devops commented on Nov 10

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More Information here on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/04/04/will-glencore-be-the-blackstone-ipo-of-the-commodity-rally/ […]

  8. Learn More commented on Dec 12

    … [Trackback]

    […] There you will find 12628 additional Info to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/04/04/will-glencore-be-the-blackstone-ipo-of-the-commodity-rally/ […]

  9. 토렌트사이트 commented on Dec 19

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/04/04/will-glencore-be-the-blackstone-ipo-of-the-commodity-rally/ […]

  10. buy marijuana online commented on Dec 21

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/04/04/will-glencore-be-the-blackstone-ipo-of-the-commodity-rally/ […]

  11. Regression testing commented on Dec 22

    … [Trackback]

    […] Here you can find 66386 more Info on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/04/04/will-glencore-be-the-blackstone-ipo-of-the-commodity-rally/ […]

  12. replica watches commented on Jan 17

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More here to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/04/04/will-glencore-be-the-blackstone-ipo-of-the-commodity-rally/ […]

  13. daftar togel online commented on Jan 23

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More Information here to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2011/04/04/will-glencore-be-the-blackstone-ipo-of-the-commodity-rally/ […]