Limit Down on the Farm

Last week I mentioned that my fave long-term trade had gotten a bit too crowded for my tastes.  There was one of those gigantic ag commodity introduction stories at that was the bushel that broke the combine’s back for me.

Yesterday, the levitation act that ag futures had been putting on for months came to an abrupt end, at least for the short term…


The March corn futures settled ‘limit down’ 30 cents at $6.79 3/4. The March soybean contract closed ‘limit down’ 70 cents at $12.98.  The March wheat futures closed ‘limit down’ 60 cents at $7.62 3/4. The March soymeal futures closed $16.40 per short ton lower at $345.60. The March soyoil futures ended $2.50 lower at $53.99.

One of the most important decisions you need to make as an investor is what your time frame is.  In the ag story, mine is a decade.  I plan to be around and the demographic outlook seems utterly undeniable to me.  Billions joining the middle class and expecting to eat more veggies and animal proteins.

But!  No matter how far out at the horizon you’re looking, it pays to glance directly down from the windowsill every once in a while as well.  Lightening up on some of my ag-related stuff in light of how universally loved it had become wasn’t the easy thing to do (on Friday it looked downright stupid), but a few days later it looks to have been a smart move as I now have the leeway to add back at lower prices.

Last week over a couple of beers, me and Joe Weisenthal were talking about mean reversion for weather and the fact that he felt ag commodities were way overbought.  His time frame was short-term.  I conceded that a cool-off was necessary but that longer-term, well, who cares?  Joe’s call was on the money so far based on this week’s early action.  My call will be on the money, too.  We can both be right because we have different time frames.

Trading is time frame, time frame is trading.


Farm Markets Close ‘Limit Down’ (

Read Also:

Ag Story Getting a Bit Crowded (TRB)

This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here:

Please see disclosures here.

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. video transitions filmora 9 commented on Sep 15

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More on to that Topic: […]

  2. Eat Verts commented on Sep 22

    … [Trackback]

    […] Information to that Topic: […]

  3. blazing trader review commented on Sep 23

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More Info here to that Topic: […]

  4. background music download commented on Nov 18

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More on that Topic: […]

  5. regression testing approach commented on Nov 25

    … [Trackback]

    […] There you can find 67335 more Info on that Topic: […]

  6. 사설토토 commented on Dec 13

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More to that Topic: […]