Can sports bookmakers apply their oddsmaking and handicapping skills to pick corporate takeovers?
I have no idea but anything has to be better than relying on Wall Street’s famously inept sell-side research culture, right?
I kid (kind of), but I thought this was kind of interesting:
After Gymboree announced Monday that it would sell itself to Bain Capital for $1.8 billion, many analysts were quick to note that they would probably not be the only specialty retailer to be bought out in the next few months. That raised an inevitable question: Who might be next?
CEO Mickey Richardson and his team at Bookmaker.com, one of the leading sportsbooks, have calculated the odds on the next specialty retailer to be scooped up.
NEXT SPECIALTY RETAILER TO BE BOUGHT OUT IN 2010?
CHILDREN’S PLACE +150 40%
AÉROPOSTALE +150 40%
CHICO’S +300 25%
OFFICEMAX +400 20%
[The +/- Indicates the Return on the Wager. The percentage is the likelihood that response will occur. For Example: Betting on the candidate least likely to win would earn the most amount of money, should that happen.]
Josh here. When I asked about the methodology, apparently Mickey’s team peruses recent papers, articles, and analyst reports to calculate their odds.
I don’t personally bet on takeovers and these stocks are outside my wheelhouse, so you’re on your own with this one. Visit http://www.bookmaker.com/ for more info on the company putting this out.