Different market environments call for different temperaments, and this tape calls for One Cool Customer. The cross-currents lately are absolutely cartoonish – back-to-back-to-back triple digit rallies while each morning we are treated to fresh evidence of Slouching Housing, Hidden Consumer.
A lot of pros were washed out at the bottom this month when the 8 or 10 month moving averages that they use as stops were violated. Right on cue, the S&P rallied 6% off those lows during July, almost out of spite. The frustration is palpable and people are getting heated.
What to make of it all? I don’t know about you, but I’m looking for cool heads and calm direction – so I’m reading a lot of Leigh Drogen lately on his Surfview Capital blog.
You may know Leigh from the StockTwits stream. He is in this market, not just discussing it. And Leigh Drogen is cooler than Lenny Kravitz in February.
Based on his writing, it appears that he’s back to playing his momentum faves and making mental room for the possibility that the tape is, in fact, getting “healthier”…
It’s hard to sit through pullbacks, but as Jesse Livermore said, the real money is made by sitting, not by coming and going. The last two days have been a tough chop fest where you really don’t want to be trading. I took off a decent amount of long exposure yesterday morning at the top, but not enough to keep me from looking at my book today and cringing, just a little. Even when you know what’s about to take place, and that your plan is to let it happen and buy into it, watching your P&L move against you is never fun. Today my second largest position, and what is a normal position size in $WPRT is down 10%, not fun. Other than that, everything is acting predictably soft, consolidating nice gains from the past week or so. We’re not playing for peanuts this time as has been the case the past three months. It’s time to make some real money as the market has become a bit healthier. Raise your stops along the way and buy the pullbacks.
Whenever sentiment and the direction of the market diverge so drastically as is the case now, the key is to stay cool. For smart, emotionless market commentary, keep Surfview on your reading list.