2010: The Year That Everyone's Right

There are no winners and no losers in 2010, everybody gets to be right so far.

The data and the various ways of interpreting it have produced a muddling the likes of which I don’t believe I’ve seen before – you almost can’t even keep score!

Even the hedge funds don’t know which way to lean or how they should be trading, according to a heavily-circulated Bloomberg story this week.

I find the ability of virtually everyone to claim (temporary) victory this year to be extraordinary.  Consider the following:

* Stock market bulls are right because we’re still in the same bull market we’ve been in since March 2009 – on paper – even despite the technical damage done this summer.

* The bears are also right, we’re down year-to-date in virtually everything except Gold, Silver, Treasuries and the Yen; less than a third of stocks now trade above their 50-day moving averages.

* Those in favor of more stimulus can point to a slowing of the nascent expansion for proof of its necessity.

* Meanwhile those concerned with deficits still have mind-blowing stats in the trillions to cite each time they state their case for a tightening up.

* And what of the explosion in the monetary base around the world, surely that portends an inflationary hellstorm right around the corner?  Surely those betting this way must be right…

* And yet, there is absolutely no evidence of inflation anywhere, from housing to energy to agricultural commodities to any other goods and services (save healthcare costs which only go in one direction).  Surely those betting on deflation must also be right.

Nobody is wrong when all of the evidence remains inconclusive.  I recognize that, logically speaking, “no one is wrong” does not automatically equate to “everyone is right”, but so far, the muddied waters have afforded them all the opportunity to claim just that.

Listen closely to the newsletters and the talking heads – “You see!  I told you so!” on both sides of virtually every debate.  And in a perverse way, they can actually justify this claim of correctness because of all the mixed signals ricocheting around the discussion.

Only the future can serve as judge.  Ongoing recovery or double dip, inflation or deflation, the bull lives or the bears reassert themselves…

No answer yet, and while we wait, everyone gets to be right.

This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here: https://www.ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers

Please see disclosures here.

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. Buy guns online commented on Oct 09

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More on to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2010/07/10/2010-the-year-that-everyones-right/ […]

  2. best wig websites commented on Oct 23

    … [Trackback]

    […] There you can find 88045 more Information on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2010/07/10/2010-the-year-that-everyones-right/ […]

  3. More Info commented on Oct 29

    … [Trackback]

    […] Here you will find 56889 additional Information on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2010/07/10/2010-the-year-that-everyones-right/ […]

  4. Harold Jahn Canada commented on Nov 04

    … [Trackback]

    […] Here you will find 43754 additional Info to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2010/07/10/2010-the-year-that-everyones-right/ […]

  5. Stiiizy starter kit commented on Nov 09

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2010/07/10/2010-the-year-that-everyones-right/ […]

  6. http://recruitment.pertamina.com/ commented on Nov 14

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More on to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2010/07/10/2010-the-year-that-everyones-right/ […]

  7. Tree Removal Licensed commented on Dec 11

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2010/07/10/2010-the-year-that-everyones-right/ […]

  8. 안전놀이터 commented on Dec 24

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2010/07/10/2010-the-year-that-everyones-right/ […]

  9. Storing your dehydrated foods commented on Jan 13

    … [Trackback]

    […] Here you will find 16963 more Info on that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2010/07/10/2010-the-year-that-everyones-right/ […]