A Public Service Announcement Followed Me Home The Other Day
I Paid It Nevermind
from Bad Day by R.E.M.
I was mildly chided for my Springtime for Setup City piece yesterday by one of my fellow bloggers for not including any nuance and for being too “directional”.
I’ll elaborate a bit here both for his edification and to reinforce my own feelings on this tape.
I don’t make directional calls here on TRB or give any advice – I do that for a living for one and secondly, I don’t feel that my contributions would be meaningful in that department amidst the cacophany of other voices. My Setups post yesterday was the enunciation of what we are all seeing heading into spring.
My caveat was that as great of an environment as this may be for stock trading, black clouds could appear out of nowhere, and so we must all be wary.
I would say that this is a pretty common take on what’s happening right now and as balanced an opinion as you’ll find. Regular readers know that I can’t be pigeonholed as either a bull or a bear, an optimist or a pessimist. I am both and neither, much to the chagrin of those who want a more orthodox narrative.
But after plenty of Bad Days – bad days which I have laboriously documented in gritty detail here on TRB – I think I’ll focus on the poetry of this market for now rather than the ugly underbelly. At least for a little while.
I know employment still sucks. I know the retailers are reporting “better than expected” against the worst comps in history. I know the banks are only lending to each other. I know that unsold home inventories are heavier than that Precious actress at the Oscars. I know all of the refinancings and bond buying is being driven by a desperate reach for yield. I know, I know, I know.
But we all know and have known for a while so I am changing the discourse here.
You want the ugly stuff, you know where to find it.