The Death of the Intermediate Term


Trying to formulate an intermediate-term opinion on a stock right now is like building a house on quicksand.

There, I said it.

Nothing I’m about to say should be considered advice.  Rather, it is the doleful lamentation of a Wall Street professional who has seen an important avenue of stock selecion closed off to him.

Someone asked me yesterday about what stocks I liked for the first half of 2010.  For the first time in my career, I found myself without even the beginnings of a constructive opinion.  Never before have I had so little faith in being able to formulate a stock thesis for the intermediate term.

How did we get to this point, where looking out past any timeframe longer than a quarter would be sheer folly?  I suppose I could point to these two main culprits:

 – Macroeconomic Forces:  Apparently, I must now heed every tick in the US Dollar and be wary of how  backwater Eastern European sovereignties mark their asset portfolios.

 – Political Uncertainty:  The rules in virtually every sector of the market are subject to change at any moment thanks to the miasma surrounding Cap and Trade, Healthcare Reform, Extension of TARP, the Trading Tax and more.

Because of inevitable legislative risk and the hyper-dynamics of world currencies, looking out 6 to 9 months in terms of financial markets has never been harder.

Anyone who claims to be sure about any of these forces should feel free to put on 6 to 12 month positions, but frankly, I haven’t the conviction right now.  I can only feel somewhat comfortable with two timeframes when formulating an idea these days:

a.  The very short-term, with one eye on the exits and an ear to the ground. 

b.  The very long-term, with a willingness to bury the physical stock certificates in the ground so as to avoid reacting to changes in legislation or sovereign debt defaults in a desert somewhere halfway around the world that won’t matter in the end.

There is never anything even approximating “certainty” in the stock market as we all know.  However, with the sheer amount of uncertainty we currently face, I’ll pass on the intermediate-term investment ideas for now.

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. w88 commented on Sep 20

    … [Trackback]

    […] Here you can find 99342 more Info to that Topic: […]

  2. immediate edge review commented on Sep 29

    … [Trackback]

    […] There you can find 29884 additional Information on that Topic: […]

  3. porn movie commented on Oct 18

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More on on that Topic: […]

  4. Read more commented on Oct 26

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More on to that Topic: […]

  5. buy vapes online commented on Oct 30

    … [Trackback]

    […] Info on that Topic: […]

  6. Harold Jahn Prosperity Investments commented on Nov 04

    … [Trackback]

    […] Information on that Topic: […]

  7. DevSecOps Journey commented on Dec 01

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More here on that Topic: […]

  8. td easyweb online commented on Dec 04

    … [Trackback]

    […] Information to that Topic: […]

  9. commented on Dec 05

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More Info here on that Topic: […]

  10. thấy ở đây bây giờ commented on Dec 18

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More Information here on that Topic: […]

  11. scotiabank canada login commented on Dec 20

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More to that Topic: […]