Dubai World & Bear Stearns: Coal Mine Canaries?

Posted by

Click Image to Embiggen!

http://thereformedbroker.com

The meme going around now is that the Dubai debt thing is only the start of a wave of sovereign defaults, including Latvia and Greece, coming soon. While this could be the case, I actually see a lot more similarities between what the Bear Stearns blow up ultimately meant to the residential real estate market versus what the default of Dubai World could mean for the commercial real estate market.

While I make no predictions or forecasts on this site whatsoever, I would be remiss if I did not point out some of these similarities (see above chart).

Commercial real estate has long been thought of as 2010’s big meltdown and the proverbial “next shoe to drop”. Nowhere has the worship and commensurate overbuilding of commercial real estate been better exemplified than in the United Arab Emirates.  At one point in 2005, it was estimated that 25% of all the cranes in the world were operating within the UAE.

Like California and South Florida came to represent the worst of the residential RE bubbles, the explosion in spending and financing for commercial RE has its international Ground Zero in Dubai.  Everyone from the major banks to the private equity cabal to Donald Trump has a stake in this story.

We’ll see whether this story is “contained” or if it is just the harbinger of a re-marking of commercial RE portfolios around the world.

Full Disclosure:  Nothing on this site should ever be construed as research, advice or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please see my Terms & Conditions page for a full disclaimer.

Tags: , , , , , ,

This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here: https://www.ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers

Please see disclosures here.

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  2. why modern day vibrators exist commented on Jun 12

    why modern day vibrators exist

    […]always a huge fan of linking to bloggers that I adore but really don’t get lots of link really like from[…]

  3. adam and eve sex toys commented on Jun 12

    adam and eve sex toys

    […]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a handful of unrelated data, nonetheless truly really worth taking a appear, whoa did a single learn about Mid East has got far more problerms as well […]

  4. auto taxi commented on Jun 12

    auto taxi

    […]check below, are some totally unrelated web-sites to ours, however, they are most trustworthy sources that we use[…]

  5. Beratung commented on Jun 13

    Beratung

    […]always a major fan of linking to bloggers that I adore but really don’t get lots of link enjoy from[…]

  6. breaking news headlines hawaii commented on Jun 13

    breaking news headlines hawaii

    […]just beneath, are many entirely not related web sites to ours, even so, they are certainly worth going over[…]

  7. pure kona coffees commented on Jun 13

    pure kona coffees

    […]that could be the end of this post. Here you will come across some internet sites that we consider you will enjoy, just click the links over[…]

  8. pure kona coffees commented on Jun 14

    pure kona coffees

    […]Every the moment inside a whilst we pick out blogs that we study. Listed beneath are the newest web sites that we pick out […]

  9. interracial porn commented on Jun 14

    interracial porn

    […]check beneath, are some absolutely unrelated internet sites to ours, nevertheless, they are most trustworthy sources that we use[…]

  10. Play Yard commented on Jun 14

    Play Yard

    […]The information mentioned within the article are a number of the ideal available […]

  11. campervans campervans commented on Jun 14

    campervans campervans

    […]just beneath, are a lot of totally not related web pages to ours, having said that, they may be surely really worth going over[…]

  12. evedensia commented on Jun 14

    evedensia

    […]check below, are some completely unrelated internet sites to ours, even so, they may be most trustworthy sources that we use[…]

  13. K-8 Private School Portland commented on Jun 15

    K-8 Private School Portland

    […]please take a look at the web pages we adhere to, which includes this 1, because it represents our picks through the web[…]

  14. plus size strap on harness commented on Jun 16

    plus size strap on harness

    […]we prefer to honor lots of other net websites on the net, even when they aren’t linked to us, by linking to them. Below are some webpages really worth checking out[…]

  15. accomodator commented on Jun 16

    accomodator

    […]always a massive fan of linking to bloggers that I adore but don’t get a whole lot of link appreciate from[…]

HowIInvestMyMoney