Dubai World & Bear Stearns: Coal Mine Canaries?

Posted by

Click Image to Embiggen!

http://thereformedbroker.com

The meme going around now is that the Dubai debt thing is only the start of a wave of sovereign defaults, including Latvia and Greece, coming soon. While this could be the case, I actually see a lot more similarities between what the Bear Stearns blow up ultimately meant to the residential real estate market versus what the default of Dubai World could mean for the commercial real estate market.

While I make no predictions or forecasts on this site whatsoever, I would be remiss if I did not point out some of these similarities (see above chart).

Commercial real estate has long been thought of as 2010’s big meltdown and the proverbial “next shoe to drop”. Nowhere has the worship and commensurate overbuilding of commercial real estate been better exemplified than in the United Arab Emirates.  At one point in 2005, it was estimated that 25% of all the cranes in the world were operating within the UAE.

Like California and South Florida came to represent the worst of the residential RE bubbles, the explosion in spending and financing for commercial RE has its international Ground Zero in Dubai.  Everyone from the major banks to the private equity cabal to Donald Trump has a stake in this story.

We’ll see whether this story is “contained” or if it is just the harbinger of a re-marking of commercial RE portfolios around the world.

Full Disclosure:  Nothing on this site should ever be construed as research, advice or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please see my Terms & Conditions page for a full disclaimer.

Tags: , , , , , ,

This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here: https://www.ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers

Please see disclosures here.

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. waterproof rabbit vibe commented on Apr 26

    waterproof rabbit vibe

    […]always a major fan of linking to bloggers that I enjoy but do not get a whole lot of link appreciate from[…]

  2. best sex toys for couples commented on Apr 27

    best sex toys for couples

    […]we came across a cool web site that you may possibly enjoy. Take a look for those who want[…]

  3. Tire Pressure commented on Apr 27

    Tire Pressure

    […]that could be the end of this article. Right here you will find some websites that we believe you will value, just click the hyperlinks over[…]

  4. friv commented on Apr 27

    friv

    […]check below, are some completely unrelated sites to ours, having said that, they’re most trustworthy sources that we use[…]

  5. tolkovie slovari commented on Apr 27

    tolkovie slovari

    […]Sites of interest we have a link to[…]

  6. Business gadgets commented on Apr 28

    Business gadgets

    […]Sites of interest we have a link to[…]

  7. Brisbane painters commented on Apr 28

    Brisbane painters

    […]one of our visitors not long ago advised the following website[…]

  8. tens massager commented on Apr 28

    tens massager

    […]the time to read or check out the content or web-sites we have linked to below the[…]

  9. stormy's secret stormy daniels keiran lee commented on Apr 28

    stormy’s secret stormy daniels keiran lee

    […]always a huge fan of linking to bloggers that I enjoy but really don’t get a great deal of link really like from[…]

  11. trah_net_621 porno podborki commented on Apr 29

    trah_net_621 porno podborki

    […]Every the moment inside a while we decide on blogs that we study. Listed beneath are the newest sites that we pick […]

  12. NFL DFS commented on Apr 29

    NFL DFS

    […]Every when inside a whilst we decide on blogs that we read. Listed below would be the most current web-sites that we pick out […]

  13. Take my online class commented on Apr 29

    Take my online class

    […]here are some hyperlinks to web pages that we link to simply because we consider they may be worth visiting[…]

  14. College Football commented on Apr 29

    College Football

    […]very handful of web-sites that come about to become comprehensive below, from our point of view are undoubtedly very well really worth checking out[…]

  15. g spot vibrator commented on Apr 30

    g spot vibrator

    […]Every when inside a when we choose blogs that we study. Listed below are the most current websites that we pick out […]

HowIInvestMyMoney