Dubai World & Bear Stearns: Coal Mine Canaries?

Posted by

Click Image to Embiggen!

http://thereformedbroker.com

The meme going around now is that the Dubai debt thing is only the start of a wave of sovereign defaults, including Latvia and Greece, coming soon. While this could be the case, I actually see a lot more similarities between what the Bear Stearns blow up ultimately meant to the residential real estate market versus what the default of Dubai World could mean for the commercial real estate market.

While I make no predictions or forecasts on this site whatsoever, I would be remiss if I did not point out some of these similarities (see above chart).

Commercial real estate has long been thought of as 2010’s big meltdown and the proverbial “next shoe to drop”. Nowhere has the worship and commensurate overbuilding of commercial real estate been better exemplified than in the United Arab Emirates.  At one point in 2005, it was estimated that 25% of all the cranes in the world were operating within the UAE.

Like California and South Florida came to represent the worst of the residential RE bubbles, the explosion in spending and financing for commercial RE has its international Ground Zero in Dubai.  Everyone from the major banks to the private equity cabal to Donald Trump has a stake in this story.

We’ll see whether this story is “contained” or if it is just the harbinger of a re-marking of commercial RE portfolios around the world.

Full Disclosure:  Nothing on this site should ever be construed as research, advice or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please see my Terms & Conditions page for a full disclaimer.

Tags: , , , , , ,

This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here: https://www.ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers

Please see disclosures here.

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. anal starter kit commented on Apr 18

    anal starter kit

    […]Here are a few of the web pages we recommend for our visitors[…]

  2. install america commented on Apr 19

    install america

    […]always a large fan of linking to bloggers that I enjoy but don’t get quite a bit of link enjoy from[…]

  3. cumming dildo commented on Apr 19

    cumming dildo

    […]The info mentioned inside the report are a few of the ideal readily available […]

  4. how to use a dildo commented on Apr 19

    how to use a dildo

    […]although websites we backlink to below are considerably not related to ours, we really feel they may be basically worth a go as a result of, so have a look[…]

  5. Fight With Deny commented on Apr 19

    Fight With Deny

    […]we came across a cool web-site that you may possibly appreciate. Take a look in case you want[…]

  6. kegel balls commented on Apr 19

    kegel balls

    […]check beneath, are some absolutely unrelated internet sites to ours, even so, they may be most trustworthy sources that we use[…]

  7. anal play commented on Apr 20

    anal play

    […]usually posts some incredibly fascinating stuff like this. If you’re new to this site[…]

  8. superpump commented on Apr 20

    superpump

    […]Sites of interest we’ve a link to[…]

  9. clitoris commented on Apr 20

    clitoris

    […]Sites of interest we have a link to[…]

  10. Men's Subscription Box commented on Apr 21

    Men’s Subscription Box

    […]very couple of web-sites that transpire to be in depth beneath, from our point of view are undoubtedly nicely worth checking out[…]

  11. prostate toy commented on Apr 21

    prostate toy

    […]although websites we backlink to beneath are considerably not connected to ours, we feel they may be essentially worth a go by way of, so have a look[…]

  12. sex toy haul commented on Apr 21

    sex toy haul

    […]Every after inside a even though we choose blogs that we study. Listed beneath are the most recent websites that we opt for […]

  14. Adam and Eve Wet Wabbit commented on Apr 22

    Adam and Eve Wet Wabbit

    […]please go to the sites we stick to, including this a single, as it represents our picks through the web[…]

  15. work from home 2018 commented on Apr 22

    work from home 2018

    […]here are some hyperlinks to websites that we link to due to the fact we believe they’re worth visiting[…]

HowIInvestMyMoney