Writing for TheStreet.com this morning, Bert Dohmen (The Wellington Letter), did as good a job as anyone else I’ve read at summing up the bear case and why many issues will come home to roost beginning this October:
We see many headwinds for the stock market. When Congress is in session, the stock market has historically underperformed by a wide margin. This time the effect should be even more negative, because of all the adverse legislation coming up for vote. The two biggest are health care and “the carbon tax.” If these two pass, say goodbye to any substantial economic recovery over the next 10 years. Even worse, it will show clearly the direction of a once great nation as it commits economic suicide.
In addition to his dismay over these pieces of legislation, he voices his concerns about the amount of bullish sentiment amongst market participants, the fact that earnings “improvements” have largely come from cost-cutting, the trouble with the previous attempt at stimulus incentives and the possibility of geopolitical cat-and-mouse games this fall.
Whether you are bullish or bearish, Dohmen’s article is all-encompassing and an important read.