Be careful to avoid becoming a supporter of any given asset class or a fan of any particular stock, bond, company, currency etc.
They all have ups and downs, strengths and weaknesses, times when they’ll reward you and times when they won’t.
You can be positive about something like Berkshire Hathaway or Apple while simultaneously admitting that there were better investment opportunities in their shares years ago, at lower prices. You can be a crypto currency fanatic but still maintain a grip on reality in saying that the future may turn out very differently from your current expectations, and that prices may be reflecting more optimism than is warranted.
This isn’t a sports team. No reasonable person is going to disparage you for right-sizing, rebalancing, readjusting your expectations. And if they do, they are morons.
Try to avoid people who put their favorite investment holdings in the bio of their social media account, or who name their website for it. They’ve crossed over and their opinions are of no use to anyone. If they’ve got the word “gold” or “crypto” or “MLP” or “hedge fund” in their profile, they’ve most likely come to do battle with anyone who’s got a contrary opinion. Their starting point isn’t “What’s your point of view?” It’s “How dare you!”
In fact, it can be argued that the ability to be bullish on something long-term but wary in the short-term – or skeptical of one’s own ideas in general – is one of the highest planes of enlightenment an investor can attain. And it works in reverse – if you hate an investment that others are having success with, you should at least be considering whether or not you’ve missed something that they haven’t. If your money is at risk in an investment, why wouldn’t you be on the lookout for new developments that could present risk you weren’t counting on?
For technicians, it’s easier (although not easy). They never fall in love with a thing fundamentally – although they may fall in love with a particular trend and not want to admit that the trend has run its course.
When the Giants lost all three wide receivers – Beckham, Shepard and Marshall – in the first third of the season, and had done nothing in the offseason to fix the lack of talent at running back and offensive line, the only reasonable way for the fans to carry on was to say “I’ll root for them but this will probably not be our season.” Kneejerk supporters who took offense at this view had nothing intelligent to bring to the discussion.
Your fellow investors in a given instrument who change their minds or introduce reasons for caution aren’t disloyal or traitors. And if you’re easily triggered by the comments of others, you probably have some growing up to do.
Don’t be a fan, be an investor.
Soundtrack:
Links:
- Mixed signals on infrastructure plan emerge from Trump retreat (Washington Post)
- ‘It Can’t Be True.’ Inside the Semiconductor Industry’s Meltdown (Bloomberg)
- Taking money off the table (A VC)
- Retail workers' jobs are transforming as shoppers' habits change (Los Angeles Times)
- Retail’s Tax Windfall Provides Ammunition Against Amazon (Wall Street Journal)
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