Mike’s like “If I told you at the beginning of this year we would have massive political volatility from a starting CAPE of 28, you would probably be like ‘Oh s*** there’s going to be a ton of stock volatility too!’ But that’s actually not what’s happened at all.”
Okay, I paraphrased him, but read this and check the chart:
For the first half of the year, the average absolute daily price change, meaning all negative signs are removed, is just 0.32%. If the year ended today, this would be the smallest daily price change since 1965! It’s hard to imagine a period in which there’s been such a wide gap between daily political volatility and daily stock market volatility.
Josh here – it’s a nice reminder that even if you know what’s going to happen, you still don’t know what’s going to happen. Go read the whole post…