Trump’s election did more than change the expectations of Republicans and Democrats about the economy’s future performance.
It altered their assessments of the economy’s actual performance.
When GOP voters in Wisconsin were asked last October whether the economy had gotten better or worse “over the past year,” they said “worse’’ — by a margin of 28 points.
But when they were asked the very same question last month, they said “better” — by a margin of 54 points.
That’s a net swing of 82 percentage points between late October 2016 and mid-March 2017.
What changed so radically in those four and a half months?
And you wonder why I’m a rules-based investor. Can people truly be trusted to keep the infections of their biases away from their portfolio management?
Not a chance. And this isn’t a recent phenomenon, it’s a forever phenomenon.
Earnings for the S&P 500 haven’t even topped where they were in the 3rd quarter of 2014, but stock prices are now 20% higher – and the Fed has been hiking!
That’s 100% pure sentiment, no fundamentals involved. Predict that.