Some killer data from my colleague Ben, who runs institutional asset management here at Ritholtz Wealth Management:
The S&P 500 has been positive 73% of all calendar years. The MSCI EAFE has been up 70% of the time. Emerging markets, on the other hand, have been positive just 54% of the time.
And in both positive and negative years, double digit gains or losses are far more likely than single digit gains or losses.
When the S&P 500 has finished the year in positive territory, it’s up double digits 77% of the time. In all years it’s been up double digits 56% of the time. For the MSCI EAFE during positive years, it’s been up double digits 78% of the time or 54% of all years. Astonishingly, since the inception of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, when annual returns were positive, 93% of the time they were up double digits (all but one year since 1988). Emerging market stocks have been up double digits 50% of all years.
This stuff is not obvious and rarely illustrated so plainly. It is prima facie evidence that risk is rewarded often, but not always.
If you’re not reading Ben daily, I don’t really know what you’re doing ¯\_(ツ)_/¯