Current Status: It’s Complicated

In mid-October, I made some remarks about the endless frustration for investors in 2015…

It’s an old saw that Mr. Market exists in order to frustrate the maximum amount of people, most of the time. I think Ben Graham said that first, like 80 years ago. If confounding the crowd is his job, then Mr. Market should be getting a raise and a bonus for this year.

Over the last month, it’s been more of the same.

Some smart stuff this morning from Jeff Saut at Ray Jay (emphasis mine):

“Reciprocal: related to each other in such a way that one completes the other or is the equal of the other.” . . . Webster’s Dictionary

“The word for today is ‘reciprocal'” is a phrase from a TV show from my youth. And today’s word is “reciprocal,” because yesterday represented a Reciprocal Rally to last Friday’s Fade. Indeed, Friday’s Dow Dump was a little over 200 points, while yesterday’s yippee yahoo was a little over 200 points as Mr. Market’s 2015 manic depressive behavior continued on the Street of Dreams. To be sure, for most of this year if you haven’t liked the direction of the equity markets, all you have had to do is wait a few sessions. And that is why there has been tremendous point movement this year without much upside, or downside, progress. Of course, as usual, my phone lit up with the media’s questioning, “What does today’s action tell us about the stock market?” My response was, “Well, it tells me that nothing has really changed.

What might change this unchanged situation?

Surely not the rate hike that everyone already expects. I guess it won’t be geopolitical, as the Dow Jones reacted to the terror attacks and amped up prospects for a ground war in Syria with a 200-point rally.

So what then?