Can JPMorgan Beat and Raise? Will Markets React?

Tomorrow morning we’ll hear from JPMorgan ($JPM).  There seems to be quite a bit more attention than usual surrounding this particular report.  I don’t get it.

The banks in general have been absolutely meaningless to this market, they have been a complete no-show in the rally.  The XLF (bank ETF) is up 3% year-to-date – and up only 3.85% year-over-year.  I’m falling asleep just thinking about this group.

Raymond James seems to think that if JP can beat-and-raise, the banks may begin to make a positive contribution to the overall markets.  Matt Phillips at MarketBeat picks up their recent comments:

“We believe that we may be entering into a new phase – that we may have reached an inflection point where the ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ phase is gone and is replaced with a ‘beat-and-raise’ trend, which could lead to strength in stock price performance as we review quarterly results.”

Let’s look at the expectations…

Analysts are looking for .64 cents in EPS on $25.48 billion in revs.  Of the 33 analysts covering it, 85% are carrying buy ratings.  Most of the published price targets are mid 50’s, the stock went out just under $47.  I’m not sure the report will matter all that much, the market remains fixated on the action in materials and techs…but we shall see.