Another year in the books and I’ve updated my Investing Fads and Themes by Year guide accordingly. It begins with 1996 because that was my first summer working on The Street and my earliest exposure to the market. I do this every December because I agree with the eminent philosopher Bob Marley in that “If you know your history,…

Regular readers know I’m not a fan of forecasts, but I do love cogently argued takes on whether or not current trends can persist into the near future. I also find it valuable to get a sense of what The Street’s expectations are and to think about whether or not I agree with them. Bank…

Oh boy. Barron’s is out with it’s 2015 Outlook issue this weekend and, of 10 major Wall Street strategists, they couldn’t find a single bear. Something tells me my friend Peter Boockvar is giggling to himself as he reads it. Full article at the link below: Outlook 2015: Stick With the Bull (Barron’s)  

via the Manual of Ideas – a new, important nugget of wisdom from Oaktree’s Howard Marks on professional investment management:

This past June, crude oil prices were hitting highs above $110 a barrel and the narrative was that this was why stocks were selling off. The S&P 500 had a weekly correlation of .55 with oil, meanwhile, and had actually spent most of the year rising with it. So not only was the “story” of…

Oil prices are now at their lowest level in five years, having sold off some 45% from their June peak, a scant five months ago. It’s a crash. Lower oil and gas prices are good for the economy but an oil crash is probably not. Let’s allow for some nuance in this discussion. I believe…