A Value Breakout or a Growth Breakout?

Dynamic Hedge blogs about correlation, relative value and quantitative analysis at http://www.dynamichedge.com

The spread between large cap value and large cap growth has been coiling for several months.  The wedge has been tightening in this relationship since correlations all went to 1 in August.  This spread measures value and growth based on the strict style classifications that Standard and Poors uses to calculate their indexes.  Which is not necessarily the same definition value investors assign when describing their methodology.

Why does this matter?  The breakout from this range should tell us more about the character of the next leg of this market.  Value driven bull conditions tend to be low volatility and have staying power.  Growth driven bull conditions tend to be more volatile and come at the end of the run.  Value destroying bear conditions tend to be relentless, whereas growth destroying bear conditions are violent and signal the crescendo of the move lower.  Several other similar indexes already given a nod to the value side.  We’ll see how this one plays out.

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