Market Recon: 11/26/2012

Stephen J. Guilfoyle “Sarge”, is the U.S. Economist at Meridian Equity Partners since 2007. Stephen joined Meridian after a long career at Credit Suisse. Stephen has worked on the trading floor of the NYSE continuously since July 1987 and actively serves as a Sergeant in the National Guard.


Good Morning,

Out of Europe, what do we see? Heavy duty secessionist chatter in Catalonia, along with the bogged down hope for Greek debt relief. Oh, and if Catalonia is out there reading me…..Yes, you do have the highest tax revenue in Spain, but if you secede, your debt burden will be greater than the rest of Spain’s. Food for thought. The first revision of British 3rd quarter GDP printed this morning at an unrevised 1,0%. The only negative being out look for the year shading from flat to -0.1%.

It’s Tuesday, and we’ve got a lot to go over, so button your chinstraps kids, and come out ready. Tuesday is our weekly retail day, so as always you can look for Goldman Store Sales at 07:55 ET, and the Redbook at 08:55 ET. There is a ton of domestic macro due today, but none more important than October Durable Goods Order. This report is expected to suffer somewhat from a double whammy created by the economic drag of the “Fiscal Cliff”, and the effects of Hurricane Sandy on the Northeast. Expect a headline number close to -0.8% month over month, thanks to the lack of a rescue from transportation purchases. Ex-Transportation, the number looks -0.4%ish. The headline range is fairly tight, spanning from -2.5% to +0.8%. This is a big drop off for this data from September.

One underlying theme today will be home prices. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index for September is due at 9am ET. Consensus here is for an increase of 2.9% year over year when looked at non-seasonally adjusted. This could be the fourth such increase in a row, and let’s face it, when you sell your home, there will be no seasonal adjustment. At 10am ET, you’ll get another taste of September with the FHFA House Price Index. This one is narrow in scope covering just single family homes, and only data provided by Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae. Today. look for a month over month increase of 0.5%, off the pace of August’s 0.7% gain, but still positive.

We’re not done with the ten o’clock hour. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report for November is expected to print near 72.8, with a range of 65 to 77. This would be up from October’s 72.2. You’ll also get the November version of the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Projections are for -8, with a range of -10 to -1. Keep in mind that the Empire State, Philly Fed, and Dallas have all printed on the miserable side this month, and I see no reason get my hopes up for Richmond.

Speakers? Yeah, we’ve got those. Two of them are probably in their questions, and answers sessions while you read this. Dallas Fed Pres. Richard Fisher, and Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart have both spoken since 6am ET from Berlin, Germany. At 08:30 ET, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak from Washington, DC. The only well known company that I see reporting today is GMCR. They are looking for .48 a share, and I do not have a position in the name.


This post originally appeared at  Guilfoyle’s Market Recon.  

Follow the Sarge on Twitter here: @Sarge986

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