Market Recon: 11/15/2012

Stephen J. Guilfoyle “Sarge”, is the U.S. Economist at Meridian Equity Partners since 2007. Stephen joined Meridian after a long career at Credit Suisse. Stephen has worked on the trading floor of the NYSE continuously since July 1987 and actively serves as a Sergeant in the National Guard.


Good Morning,

Tough day yesterday. Well, we’ve got enough on the plate today to put your mind to work, so let’s go. Let’s get back to an old formula, and start in Europe. Amid the uncertainty surrounding the continuing bail-out of Greece, the never beginning bail-out of Spain, and the question marks that dog Ireland, and Portugal, The Euro Zone was home to a bevy of third quarter Flash GDP’s this morning. Such data was released for France, Germany, Italy, and the EMU in general. What the data told us was that, while economies in Europe are not where they need to get, and some of these are still in contraction, all four of those printed better than consensus. A subtle, yet noteworthy point of optimism in Europe. October CPI was also released for the EMU, and that printed right on expectations. If you need something negative, October Retail Sales in the UK were rather dreadful.

Here in North America, be alert at 08:30 ET, because there will be an avalanche of macro-economic data released at that time. We’ll follow up on yesterday’s PPI, with October CPI. Don’t look for much life there, as the consensus is for an increase of 0.1%, or 0.2% at the core. This comes off of a September headline print of 0.6%, or 0.1% at the core. The headline range today is narrow, at 0% to 0.3%, not leaving much room for error. The weekly report on Jobless Claims is always important. Today, we look for an increase to 376K, up from last week’s 355K. The range is fairly wide at 340K to 390K. Continuing Claims fell of the map last week, let’s see if they can do it again.

You know what’s going to be looked at today, that’s been a little off the radar of late? Manufacturing, that’s what. Still at 08:30, we’ll see November’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Expectations are for some further contraction. The consensus is for -5, with a range of -10 to 0. Can’t get much neater than that. October printed at -6..16. At the same time, for those of you trading up north, look for September Canadian Manufacturing Sales to have increased by 0.3% coming off of August’s 1.5% increase. If you’re still standing after all of that, be on the alert at 10am ET for the November Philadelphia Fed Survey. This one is expected to remain positive. Projections are for a 4.5 print, slightly off of the pace of a 5.7 print in October. The range here spans from -4 to +8.

We have a lot of earnings releases to tell you about, and like the last few day, they still have a retailing flavor about them. Before today’s opening bell, you’ll hear from GME (.32), HP (1.24), TGT (.79), VIAB (1.17), and WMT (1.07). After the close today, you get numbers from DELL (.40), DOLE (.14), GPS (.63), SHLD (-2.17), and SINA (.11). I have no position in any of these names.

There are so many Fed speakers out there today, that you need to be cognizant of, that I will simply list them for you.


1) 09:00 ET Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker – Charleston, West Virginia – Q&A


2) 10:15 ET Chicago Fed Pres. Charles Evans – London, Eng.


3) 13:20 ET Fed Res Chairman Ben Bernanke – Atlanta, Georgia (on Housing)


4) 14:45 ET Dallas Fed Pres. Richard Fisher – Stanford, California – Q&A


5) 16:30 ET Philadelphia Fed Pres. Charles Plosser – CATO Institute – Q&A


6) 18:30 ET New York Fed Pres. William Dudley – New York, NY



This post originally appeared at  Guilfoyle’s Market Recon.  

Follow the Sarge on Twitter here: @Sarge986

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