Hold on for one more day

Yes I’m quoting a Wilson Phillips song. I don’t know why.

But I talked about holding on for one more day at the end of February at a moment where it felt hopeless to be a responsible, diversified investor while everyone around you is getting insanely rich buying the craziest shit imaginable.

Feb 22nd:

It seems like the world is moving a thousand miles a minute and you’re missing out on everything. Everyone seems to be whooshing by! 🎵 It’s like you’re always stuck in second gear…🎵

Take a deep breath.

It’s not true.

It just looks that way.

Yes, people have made a lot of money but they won’t keep it all. And if they keep throwing more chips onto the table, it will be their regrets, not yours, that fill the next raft of headlines at The Verge.

No one is going to become a baseball card billionaire. Rising interest rates are going to blow a lot of this stuff up. “But rates aren’t rising!” Yes they are.

And now a lot of the easy money stuff is being blown to pieces. They take the stairs up and the elevator shaft down.

The SPAK ETF and related SPAC index is now in a 20% plus drawdown, negative year to date and getting annihilated relative to the S&P 500. Of course it is. They were bringing 5 of these public a day at one point during the frenzy and, eventually, there just isn’t enough money available to support all of them – trading at premiums over cash! Are you kidding me?

At the end of February it was really hard to sit tight with a rational asset allocation. It only took two weeks or so from when I wrote Substack Vertigo and three weeks from when I wrote The Big Long for a lot of damage to be inflicted in the wildest parts of the market.

Hope you held on and didn’t bite the lure. Greed is every bit as uncontrollable as fear, it’s just activated by a different part of our brains. Greed and envy and FOMO are all toxic impulses. We must be always on our guard.

Some of this stuff will bounce back but a lot of it won’t. If you went all-in on the SPAC bubble, binged on negative earnings stocks and IPOs and threw money at whatever else seemed to be a one-way rally, well, at least you’re walking away with a souvenir – the experience. Remember what this moment feels like and never forget it. You will see and feel it again.


This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here: https://www.ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers

Please see disclosures here.