Sorry, I’ve been listening to the new Radiohead non-stop today.
But seriously, the FOMC punted on raising rates one quarter of one percent today and said that “international uncertainty loomed large” in the decision.
I don’t know what that means. Will there be a point in time during which there are no international uncertainties?
Further, students of history know that it’s during times of certainty that we must be most particularly vigilant. Grateful Dead: Well the first days are the hardest days, don’t you worry any more. ‘Cause when life looks like Easy Street, there is danger at your door.
I’m not a Fed critic, but this is just getting pathetic now. You think you’re protecting the economy with NIRP and ZIRP but at a certain point, you’re really just threatening it. If you’re trying to produce confidence, then jeopardizing the ability to earn profits among the largest banks in the world is probably not the way to do it. And that’s exactly what these policies are doing, globally. Look at the European banks right now!
Employment is growing, but probably toward its limit. Wage growth, despite the headline miss on jobs last month, is sticking. Employers are reporting open positions they need to fill and difficulty finding candidates. “Transitory” commodity weakness has been ameliorated somewhat by the rebound in crude. Housing is solid. Retail sales are not as bad as expected.
Pull the trigger already. International uncertainty is a permanent condition. If it’s not Brexit this month, it will be the Brazilian riots caused by Zika-infected Olympic pole vaulters later this summer. Always, there will be something.