Give ’em what they want

We can talk about the past, present, and the future. We know the past reasonably well. The present is fuzzy. We know the future not at all — we can only make guesses. Those guesses might be educated guesses, but they are still guesses...

The thing is, readers have their concerns about the future, and they want advice. Many would rather have a false certainty than a nuanced set of possibilities. We can’t do anything for them — they are fodder for the charlatans.

Can you deliver investment commentary that is completely forecast free? Probably not.

But can you be honest with your readers and talk in terms of probabilities, using things like underlying trend, historical data, intuition and rational thought? Can you make that valuable?

You’re damn right you can. David Merkel (Aleph Blog) has been doing it for over ten years. Tadas Viskanta (Abnormal Returns) has been doing it for eight years. Jeff Miller (Dash of Insight) too. And Eddy Elfenbein (Crossing Wall Street). Even Bill McBride (Calculated Risk), who shares his outlook regularly on housing or the economy, phrases these outlooks in such a way that the reader is never tricked into certainty.

There’s a reason those blogs have stood the test of time. They add value by tackling the issues of the day in an intelligent way – without ever crossing the line into aggressive forecasting.

Not every reader wants reason and rationality though. Some arrive at your blog expecting to be told exactly what to do – what stock do I buy right now that will reward me tomorrow? The bad news is, we can’t help them. The good news is that there will always be someone who’s willing to give ’em what they want.

Just be careful what you wish for.

This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here:

Please see disclosures here.

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. Software testing commented on Jan 15

    … [Trackback]

    […] There you can find 31164 additional Info to that Topic: […]

  2. Coby MP977-4G manuals commented on Jan 21

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More Information here on that Topic: […]