November 2013

The Highest Conviction Game

Let’s play a game. Imagine you could only have four positions in a portfolio between now and year-end, of equal size (25% each). Obviously this is nuts, call it a gun-to-your-head thing. No one would advocate doing this in real life but it’s a helpful exercise in determining your true highest-conviction investments at any given…

Two-Word Investment Outlooks

“Opportunity abounds” – long-only equity guy “Stockpicker’s market” – asset management firm “Risks remain” – guy who runs a Black Swan fund “Expect volatility” – trader “Staying constructive” – sell-side analyst “On track.” – financial advisor “Dislocations exist” – hedge fund manager “Buy, Sell” – stockbroker “Yes, however…” – economist “Headwinds persist” – Chief Strategist…

361 Capital Weekly Research Briefing

361 Capital portfolio manager, Blaine Rollins, CFA, previously manager of the Janus Fund, writes a weekly update looking back on major moves, macro-trends and economic data points. The 361 Capital Weekly Research Briefing summarizes the latest market news along with some interesting facts and a touch of humor. 361 Capital is a provider of alternative…

The Retirement Crisis, Illustrated

America is facing its own little demographic headache in the coming years thanks to the declining birthrate, drop-off in immigration and massive wave of retiring boomers… Source:  Visually  

Active Managers Raise Cash

Interesting tidbit here via Reuters… …the level of cash in actively managed stock portfolios has crept up to 3.5 percent of assets, according to Lipper, a Thomson Reuters company. While low on an absolute level, that figure is the highest percentage of cash held by fund managers since the financial crisis in 2008. Everyone’s staying…

Earnings Consensus has Benjamin Button Disease

This is one of the more hilarious charts documenting the impossibility with which price targets and market forecasts are made each year by Wall Street’s analyst community. Here’s a Morgan Stanley chart via @ukarlewitz of Fat Pitch Financial:   In other words, analysts’ earnings forecasts are, on average, more than 50% higher than where they…