Sam Ro just published some recent commentary from Morgan Stanley’s bearish chief strategist Adam Parker. Parker says that one thing that could change the tone of this market for the better would be a perceived or actual victory of Mitt Romney:
The biggest possibility here would be Romney winning the Presidential election. Our guess is that the market multiple would expand if in fact more investors start believing Romney will win. Secondly, we think an improving outlook in China could create a bid for cyclicals in the US, given how much they have sold off. Interestingly, the microstructure of the market rally this past week was not full-on beta, with health care (our largest overweight) the best performing sector in Friday’s large uptrend. Investors are worried, they are just not worried now. We think the time for more worry is near. Perhaps the champagne should be for mood enhancement, not for celebration.
I agree with him. The research shows that there is no stock market benefit in real life as to which party controls the White House. But in this case, the business community is sick and tired of being sick and tired, they’d welcome the change with a great deal of pent-up optimism about the future. Mitt is running as a fiscal conservative (because he has to) but in general, most of us know that he will keep taxes low and maybe even seek to cut them further to stimulate the economy. The odds of a healthcare roll-back are slim but the potential would certainly stoke the fires as well.