Very good financial writers can take a multitude of macro and market threads and weave them together into a simple narrative cloth. The very best can do so succinctly and often. That’s what Michael Santoli does for us each week…
The reasons the bulls are bullish are also pretty universally agreed upon. The industrial economy has gathered some momentum, the emerging markets are surging, companies are flush, profits look set to rise decently again, the Federal Reserve is seeking new ways to penalize risk aversion, taxes won’t go up and the market tends to do well in the year after a midterm election.
And we can add to the list the likelihood that another financial-engineering cycle is just getting into gear, so expect lots of equity-friendly refinancings by stretched companies, re-leveraging by cash-rich ones and buyouts hither and yon.
The thing is, it’s all pretty much true. And because of that, and given that stock valuations are not excessive, it’s tough to think a likely pullback or worse would signal some major top.
With so many Main Streeters still boycotting the stock market, even after a 21 month rally, I found the above to be a helpful guide to some of what they may be missing from the perspective of the bulls.