I Miss the Recession

It’s over, officially.  The NBER has named and dated the trough…

CAMBRIDGE September 20, 2010 – The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months.

But unemployment (which some call a lagging indicator, some call a coincident indicator) is still absurdly high and the Fed is still in emergency mode (zero percent interest rates forever). 

We’ll hear from the FOMC tomorrow.  While no one is looking for any target rate change, JPMorgan is saying there is a 1/3 chance that we hear about the next phase of quanititative easing or the newer, sexier LSAP (Large Scale Asset Repurchases).

Stay tuned, here are some reactions:

Its Official: Recession Ended June 2009 (TBP)

NBER Announces US Recession Ended In June 2009, No Announcement Yet On When Depression Is Due To End (Zero Hedge)

 The Recession’s Over (DJ Market Talk)